The Irrationality of Rationality

June 08 2006

Here's something for you economics types.  The "experts" claim that the market is always rational .... housing prices are rational, stock prices are rational, store prices are rational, yadi yadi yadi.


Of course, to believe the rationality of the rational theory then one has to believe that people individually and collectively are rational.  We know that people are NOT rational, but are emotional.  They are both fear driven and greed driven .... while some (good) folks are alturistically driven.


In the case of mathematics, we know that 1+1+1=3.  But it is not that way with people.  The summation of irrational beings does not suddenly become a rational society.  This is the case in economics, politics, business, life, and even religion.


So what can we do about irrationality?  About all we can do, is understand that people, markets, and things are not always rational .... although in most cases they are "explainable".  We need to accept that people and events, although understandable (after the fact) aren't always predictable ... and in the most cases are not controllable.  We need to understand our limitations ... and protect ourselves from ourselves ... and in particular our own irrationality and fears.


Its like white water rafting.  When the big 15 foot wave is heading right for you, you want to run from the wave ... turn away ... protect yourself.  If you do, then you will capsize.  However, if you charge right into the wave ... and face your fears ... then you have a good probability of successfully navigating the monster wave.  FACE YOUR FEARS, RECOGNIZE YOUR SHORT COMINGS, TRUST IN GOD, and MOVE FORWARD.


What about irrational markets?  Oh yeah, I don't understand the stock market .... its down 10% in the last month due to the fear of inflation and higher interest rates.  Does that make sense ?  No !!  What am I doing about it ?  Actually, I'm just staying the course in my investments .... I'm like the turtle .... slow and steady ... that will win the race .... 


For the younger folks in the world, and the ones that read this blog (including the one that had a decision to make) ... identify your goals, dreams, hopes .... develop a plan ... work the plan ... stay focused ... modify the plan, when necessary .... but stay focused on the GOAL ...


ciao ciao